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For fear of starting another argument, let us try and debate this properly with no mud slinging or personal political views. I have read this morning the following:

France has recorded 1,331 deaths amid the coronavirus outbreak but there are fears the toll could be far higher.

Health authorities are only counting those who die in hospitals and are not performing post-mortems on unconfirmed cases. France's top health official, Jérôme Salomon, said hospital cases "probably represent a small part of the overall mortality".

News reports suggest nursing homes could be suffering a large number of deaths not included in the figures. The president of the Association of Directors for the Elderly told Ouest France newspaper 100,000 residents could be at risk and asked for government aid.

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It made me wonder a couple of things. Is the UK doing the same thing, and how many other countries are, eg Germany. I presume so many briefings prior to press announcement feature the question........'can we get away with saying that'?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, dfk41 said:

For fear of starting another argument, let us try and debate this properly with no mud slinging or personal political views. I have read this morning the following:

France has recorded 1,331 deaths amid the coronavirus outbreak but there are fears the toll could be far higher.

Health authorities are only counting those who die in hospitals and are not performing post-mortems on unconfirmed cases. France's top health official, Jérôme Salomon, said hospital cases "probably represent a small part of the overall mortality".

News reports suggest nursing homes could be suffering a large number of deaths not included in the figures. The president of the Association of Directors for the Elderly told Ouest France newspaper 100,000 residents could be at risk and asked for government aid.

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It made me wonder a couple of things. Is the UK doing the same thing, and how many other countries are, eg Germany. I presume so many briefings prior to press announcement feature the question........'can we get away with saying that'?

Of course the UK are doing the same thing. They announced early on that people would only be tested when they presented themselves in hospital, and that they'd only be admitted to hospital even when they were already half dead. The numbers are skewed from the outset. I'd imagine deaths at home or during self-isolation would be put down to "natural causes" as they wouldn't and haven't tested them for COVID-19, irrespective if they're 19 or 93.

EDIT: To add, I know someone who came back from Italy the week before they went into lockdown, he immediately got tested and still hasn't got his results, 3 weeks later. Go figure...

Edited by Cooffe

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The French currently have about the same recorded rate of new infections, same rate of recorded fatalities & similar proportion of fatalities vs recorded cases as the UK...they just seem to be a bit farther down the road than UK & USA.

By the end of yesterday we had more fatalities than the French had on the 20/3, by the end of today we'll likely have as many, or more recorded infections than they had on 19/3.

So we seem fairly comparable at the moment, just at different stages.


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Do not disagree, but for me, I would rather know the truth than a perceived truth. How can anyone compare the UK to another country if the reporting ethos are different......I keep on citing Germany who seem to have the third highest case of infection but amongst the lowest deaths

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1 minute ago, dfk41 said:

Do not disagree, but for me, I would rather know the truth than a perceived truth. How can anyone compare the UK to another country if the reporting ethos are different......I keep on citing Germany who seem to have the third highest case of infection but amongst the lowest deaths

I would also beg that China and Iran give their "actual" figures, not their "look-good-for-the-media" figures. You don't dig mass graves for 300 deaths.

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8 minutes ago, Cooffe said:

I would also beg that China and Iran give their "actual" figures, not their "look-good-for-the-media" figures. You don't dig mass graves for 300 deaths.

Can we really trust figures that come out of China and Iran matey?

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3 minutes ago, dfk41 said:

Can we really trust figures that come out of China and Iran matey?

no

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3 minutes ago, dfk41 said:

Can we really trust figures that come out of China and Iran matey?

Unfortunately not, unless it was monitored by an independent body. China are trying to make themselves look good now by saying "wow look at all these major retailers (Lego, Apple etc.) keeping their stores open in china but closing everywhere else", however they seem to forget where this whole disease originated. It's highly coincidental that this all happened when there was a major recession in China. I wouldn't trust Xi Jinping as far as I could throw him, especially when monetary gain comes into play. Iran is just another completely different kettle of fish.

 

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31 minutes ago, dfk41 said:

Do not disagree, but for me, I would rather know the truth than a perceived truth. How can anyone compare the UK to another country if the reporting ethos are different......I keep on citing Germany who seem to have the third highest case of infection but amongst the lowest deaths

USA also has a low rate of fatalities, it varies by country.

China went into enforced lockdown when they still only had a few hundred recorded cases, they built new hospitals just to deal with this. They are well over the hump now, we're still going uphill.

It's an assumption, but for the world tracker to work there must be some reasonable standardisation of reporting...sure there are some outliers (Russia), but it's global problem, we're all in the same boat, I don't see any major reason to doubt figures from our nearest neighbours.


“Coffee evokes the most insane reactions in people”, Rene Redzepi.

 

https://markwjburness.wordpress.com/

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We have friends in the south of France. They now have to carry an 'Attestation de déplacement dérogatoire et justificatif de déplacement professionnel' form which they download from a French government website, fill in and carry at all times. Failure to produce it risks a €135 fine. So, if stopped, rather than explain to the official why they are out and about, they show him or her a form they filled in which gives the reason for being out and about. The cited validations for being out and about are more or less the same as in the UK - shopping, walking the dog, caring for the elderly etc. Trust the French to introduce vacuous bureaucracy at a times of crisis. 

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We have friends in the south of France. They now have to carry an 'Attestation de déplacement dérogatoire et justificatif de déplacement professionnel' form which they download from a French government website, fill in and carry at all times. Failure to produce it risks a €135 fine. So, if stopped, rather than explain to the official why they are out and about, they show him or her a form they filled in which gives the reason for being out and about. The cited validations for being out and about are more or less the same as in the UK - shopping, walking the dog, caring for the elderly etc. Trust the French to introduce vacuous bureaucracy at a times of crisis. 
Same thing in Italy, although they risk a 350euro fine. What's the point of it?

Worst thing in all of this is that both Spain and Italy are apparently not even in their peak :/ and there's the UK getting excited about Excel being converted into a hospital with 4k beds...


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10 minutes ago, dsc said:

Same thing in Italy, although they risk a 350euro fine. What's the point of it?

Worst thing in all of this is that both Spain and Italy are apparently not even in their peak 😕 and there's the UK getting excited about Excel being converted into a hospital with 4k beds...
 

Saving lives?

Italy might not be at its peak, but rate of increase of new infections seems to be slowing slightly.


“Coffee evokes the most insane reactions in people”, Rene Redzepi.

 

https://markwjburness.wordpress.com/

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What is saving lives? Those self filled forms? How exactly?

Btw I'm all for staying inside, but I can't see how a form is going to help, unless of course I'm missing something.


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20 minutes ago, MWJB said:

Italy might not be at its peak, but rate of increase of new infections seems to be slowing slightly.

Think we all pray this continues and for Spain too. 

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12 minutes ago, dsc said:

but I can't see how a form is going to help, unless of course I'm missing something.

It isn't but is reflective of the differing ways countries respond/deal with the crisis. Bureaucracy and ensuant form filling seems to be very much part of French DNA. It's alien to us. 

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15 minutes ago, dsc said:

What is saving lives? Those self filled forms? How exactly?

Btw I'm all for staying inside, but I can't see how a form is going to help, unless of course I'm missing something.

It's just official enforcement of the strategy.

We've seen separate parties meet up & hug in the supermarket, people have their extended families over to visit, most folk are complying but some seem to need a little extra encouragement to take this seriously.

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“Coffee evokes the most insane reactions in people”, Rene Redzepi.

 

https://markwjburness.wordpress.com/

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Perhaps it helps in some way ie. makes you think if you really need to go out. Is it dated? Do you have to do one each time you go out or do you fill one out and carry it with you all the time?

At first glance it does appear like a paper exercise though.


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Think you have to complete a new one each time you go out. For those who don't have access to a printer, you write your own - really, I am not making this up. And if you don't have a computer where do you get access to the form? It's utterly pointless. 

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Posted (edited)

Ah, but the policeman in me thinks that if you have a form you have ticked to say you are walking le chien but you do not have it with you but instead have a bottle of pastis, it might make you think for next when when you have paid your fine. Making it onerous to go out will produce two situations. Those who need do and have the right documentation, and those who don't. Knowing the likelihood is you are going to be stopped, might make you less desirous of being in the West Midlands and having a BBQ

Edited by dfk41

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Posted (edited)

Anyway, as of 19 March HMG has downgraded the threat of coronavirus even as people continue to die  It is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease .

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Why?

In the UK we test minimally so the rates of infection figures are meaningless. May be a better indication would be to work backwards from the mortality figures  

 

Edited by Nikko

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23 minutes ago, Nikko said:

Anyway, as of 19 March HMG has downgraded the threat of coronavirus even as people continue to die  It is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease .

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Why?

In the UK we test minimally so the rates of infection figures are meaningless. May be a better indication would be to work backwards from the mortality figures  

 

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

Seems to be the consensus of experts rather than the thoughts of an individual

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Seems to be the consensus of experts rather than the thoughts of an individual


Same experts who though the idea of herd immunity was such a fantastic approach even though the whole world was recommending smth different?
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It is no longer classed as an HCID, yet HMG stopped the economy and is set to print £330 billion. What is happening is an unprecedented social experiment. 

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1 minute ago, Nikko said:

It is no longer classed as an HCID, yet HMG stopped the economy and is set to print £330 billion. What is happening is an unprecedented social experiment. 

But this hasn't just happened here.

19/3 was a week ago (3269 recorded cases in UK, 140  fatalities), before businesses were asked to close.

Are all the governments in league in this social experiment?


“Coffee evokes the most insane reactions in people”, Rene Redzepi.

 

https://markwjburness.wordpress.com/

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